TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 12:08 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with their receivers. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds predetermined completion thresholds during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total passing completions recorded by the named quarterback in the specified game. If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual number of completions recorded during the game. Each market has a distinct threshold for resolution, with varying completion counts required for a 'Yes' outcome. The markets are independent, and each is evaluated solely on the performance of its designated quarterback against its specific target. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing completion totals. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of the expected number of passing completions. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a fair and efficient market for forecasting the game’s outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved by both teams during the Indianapolis versus Washington game will be used to determine the winning contract. The official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will serve as the basis for verifying the outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift the market. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or play-calling tendencies, as revealed through media reports or coaching statements, might cause traders to reassess their predictions. Unexpected late-breaking news or even significant shifts in public sentiment could also contribute to volatility in this market.