TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 12:43 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the relationship between the first half and full game outcomes in a specific football match. Each market requires a particular combination of results in both halves to be correct for resolution. The outcomes depend on whether each team leads, ties, or loses in both segments of the game.
The markets resolve based on the combined results of the first half and the full game (including overtime) of the Indianapolis vs Washington Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. For a market to resolve as 'Yes,' both the specified first half result and the specified full game result must occur exactly as described. If either the first half or full game result does not match the market's conditions, the market resolves to 'No.' Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final official result. If the game fails to start within the 48-hour window, the markets will resolve to a fair price. All markets are independent, each requiring a unique combination of first half and full game outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market's prices are driven by actual trading volume and individual beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing a team’s chances, they can express that view by buying or selling contracts, causing the prediction market odds to diverge. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price of a contract can fluctuate significantly based on trading activity and external factors influencing perceptions of the game's likely result. The market efficiently incorporates available information.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result – whether Indianapolis or Washington wins, or if the game ends in a tie – will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game results as reported by established sports news sources. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and payout details on Kalshi following the game's completion.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Indianapolis or Washington would likely cause price adjustments. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as a severe storm, could also influence the odds. Major shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or prominent bettors, can also impact trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking news related to team dynamics or coaching decisions could lead to changes in the perceived probabilities and therefore, the prices in this market.