TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. Participants can bet on how many rushing yards a designated player will gain during the match. The outcome depends directly on the actual statistics recorded during the game.
The event features two parallel scalar markets focusing on the rushing yardage achieved by Jaylen Warren and Jonathan Taylor in the Indianapolis vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market operates under identical payout mechanics: Yes contracts pay $0.0025 per rushing yard recorded, up to a maximum of $1.00, while No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Both markets cap yardage consideration at 400 yards. Payouts are proportional to contract positions, meaning a holder’s return scales with their share of the total position size. For instance, 80 yards would yield a Yes payout of $0.20 and a No payout of $0.80, while zero yards would result in a full $1.00 No payout. The structure ensures that total payouts for any contract never exceed $1.00, maintaining a balanced risk-reward dynamic tied directly to the players’ performance in the game. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the NFL, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to profit from public perception, while this market aggregates diverse opinions. However, initial sportsbook lines often influence early trading activity. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant news breaks or closer to game time, as traders incorporate their own analysis and information into their predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set their own bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. Higher demand for a particular outcome drives up its price, indicating a greater perceived likelihood, while increased selling pressure lowers the price.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage totals for the Indianapolis versus Pittsburgh game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final, official rushing yardage statistics released by the NFL will be used to determine which contracts settle at 100, and which settle at 0. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the final yardage range.
Several factors could significantly shift the price of this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would any changes to the projected weather conditions for the game. Unexpected news regarding coaching strategies or offensive line changes could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about player availability or team dynamics could lead to substantial price movements as traders adjust their expectations.