TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:32 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets allow participants to bet on the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. Payouts are directly tied to the players' fantasy points scored during the game, calculated using a standardized scoring system. The structure ensures that returns scale with individual player productivity.
Each market determines payouts based on the PPR fantasy points scored by a designated player during the specified game, using Sleeper's weekly standard scoring. For every Yes contract, the payout equals $0.01 multiplied by the player's fantasy points, rounded to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capped between $0.00 and $1.00. The No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. If Sleeper does not assign a fantasy-point total for the week, the player is considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a $0.00 payout for Yes and $1.00 for No. Payouts are proportional to contract positions, meaning holders of multiple contracts receive correspondingly scaled returns. All markets are independent, with each player's performance evaluated separately under identical scoring and payout rules.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis and information. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. Polling data and expert analysis often fall between the two, with prediction markets sometimes proving more accurate than either sportsbooks or polls in forecasting event outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the probability of a particular outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective assessment of that outcome's likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time view of expectations. The market depth and spread can also indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final results of the Indianapolis versus Pittsburgh game in the NFL divisional round. The platform will verify the outcome against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the resolution.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Indianapolis or Pittsburgh would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game significantly, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news about team coaching strategies or internal conflicts could also shift market sentiment. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could quickly alter the odds, reflecting new information or perspectives.