TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:38 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate whether Jonathan Taylor will achieve specific rushing yard thresholds in a football game between Indianapolis and Minnesota. Each threshold represents a progressively higher yardage goal that Taylor must meet or exceed for the corresponding market to settle positively.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if Jonathan Taylor participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless he meets or exceeds the specified rushing yard threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If Taylor participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of his first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers full game rushing yards including overtime.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to differing information and incentives. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information becomes available, or as public sentiment shifts. Polls and analysts' predictions often align more closely with initial sportsbook lines, but this market can provide a more dynamic and potentially more accurate forecast as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price indicates the cost to acquire a contract that pays out if the actual rushing yards fall within the specified range. The market's depth and trading volume provide insight into the confidence traders have in each outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yardage total from the Indianapolis versus Minnesota game will be used to determine which contracts payout. The official NFL statistics will serve as the source for this data. Traders will be able to see the final result and any payouts on Kalshi shortly after the game concludes. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available, verifiable information.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves around Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either the Indianapolis or Minnesota teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts – particularly if heavy rain or snow is predicted – could also shift expectations, as inclement weather typically leads to a more run-heavy offensive approach. Finally, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or defensive matchups could impact how traders assess the potential for rushing yardage in this game. These events will be verified against credible public reporting.