TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players during an upcoming football game between Indianapolis and Minnesota. Participants can bet on how many passes each player will catch, with payouts scaling based on the exact count of receptions.
This event features three separate scalar markets, each tied to the number of receptions achieved by a specific player—Aaron Jones Sr., Josh Downs, and Jonathan Taylor—during the Pro Football game between Indianapolis and Minnesota scheduled for October 25, 2026. For each market, Yes contracts pay out according to a predefined schedule that increases with the number of receptions, capped at $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The payout formula for Yes contracts is calculated as floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official number of receptions. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the corresponding Yes payout. Each market resolves to Yes if the specified player achieves at least one reception, with the exact payout determined by the reception count. The structure ensures that payouts increase non-linearly with reception totals, incentivizing accurate predictions of performance. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate forecasts of event outcomes than traditional betting markets, as they aggregate a wider range of perspectives and incentivize accurate predictions. However, sportsbook odds offer a useful benchmark for comparison.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible reception totals. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The closer the game gets, the more active the trading tends to become, as new information and insights become available. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the most up-to-date collective intelligence on the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official reception totals for the Indianapolis versus Minnesota game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual number of receptions achieved by the players involved. It’s important to note that the resolution is based on official statistics and not on any subjective interpretation or individual reporting. The platform will verify the data against established sports data sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or weather conditions could significantly impact expectations for reception totals. Unexpected developments in player performance during practice or pre-game warm-ups could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a change in outlook. Monitoring these signals and staying informed about the teams involved is crucial for understanding potential market movements leading up to Oct 25, 2026.