TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 3:12 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific quarterbacks in a football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns they achieve. The outcomes depend entirely on the players' ability to score through aerial plays during the match. Each market sets a different threshold for success, reflecting varying levels of offensive productivity.
All markets resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns recorded by specified quarterbacks during the Indianapolis vs Minnesota Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the named quarterback meets or exceeds the stated threshold of passing touchdowns. If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by penalty—the market settles strictly according to the actual number of passing touchdowns recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for both Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones, with each market having its own threshold for resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and differing information sets. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. It's common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges, and as more traders participate, potentially leading to a more accurate forecast than traditional betting venues. However, both aim to predict the same real-world outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price discovery process is dynamic, and the market can react quickly to new information or changes in sentiment regarding the Indianapolis versus Minnesota game and the expected passing touchdowns.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of passing touchdowns scored by both teams in the Indianapolis versus Minnesota game will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data provider, ensuring an objective and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either the Indianapolis or Minnesota teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or personnel changes could also move the market. Finally, general shifts in public sentiment, reflected in social media or sports news, can contribute to price movements as traders react to perceived advantages or disadvantages for either team.