TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 3:14 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the number of passing touchdowns achieved by specific quarterbacks during an upcoming football game. The outcomes depend on whether the designated players meet various thresholds of scoring passes throughout the match.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets the required passing touchdown threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers full game passing touchdowns including overtime.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective belief of traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, opportunities may arise for arbitrage. However, it’s common to see convergence as the event approaches, especially if public sentiment aligns with the prediction market's assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Indianapolis versus Minnesota game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be publicly available after the game concludes. Traders should monitor official sources for confirmation of the final result and subsequent payout of their contracts.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift the market. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or player rotations could also cause fluctuations. Finally, large volume trades from informed traders could signal shifts in sentiment and move the market accordingly.