TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 3:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing performance thresholds for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game. It examines whether players reach designated completion milestones, offering insight into anticipated offensive strategies and player roles. Outcomes reflect real-time in-game statistics tied to individual quarterback performance.
All markets resolve based on the total passing completions recorded by specified quarterbacks during the designated game. If a referenced quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap — even if that snap is nullified by a penalty — the market resolves according to the actual number of completions recorded during the game. Each market has a distinct threshold (e.g., 16+, 21+, or 26+ completions) that must be met or exceeded for a 'Yes' resolution. These thresholds apply separately to each named player, allowing for multiple outcomes depending on individual performance. The markets are independent of league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and risk assessment, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing a particular outcome, the odds here will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the Colts-Vikings game and their passing offenses.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible passing completion totals for the Colts-Vikings game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the event's outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative market for forecasting passing completions.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing completion statistics from the Indianapolis versus Minnesota game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual number of passing completions achieved during the game. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either the Colts or the Vikings would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to affect the passing game, could also shift prices. Late-breaking reports on team strategies or defensive adjustments could also impact trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price fluctuations as traders react to new information or perceived opportunities.