TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:00 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how often specific quarterbacks attempt passes during a football game between Indianapolis and Minnesota. The outcomes depend on whether each player meets or exceeds designated attempt thresholds. Settlement considers player participation and in-game actions, ensuring accuracy even if plays are nullified by penalties.
All markets resolve based on the total passing attempts recorded by the named quarterback during the specified game. If a quarterback is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles strictly according to the actual number of passing attempts recorded. These rules apply uniformly across all outcome thresholds for each quarterback, ensuring consistent evaluation of performance metrics.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As a result, you may see differences between the implied probabilities in this market and those offered by sportsbooks. These discrepancies can arise from varying levels of information, different analytical approaches, or simply the dynamic of a decentralized prediction mechanism. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total passing attempts. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set accurate prices, as they profit from correctly predicting the event's outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likely passing attempts total for the Indianapolis versus Minnesota game.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing attempts total from the Indianapolis versus Minnesota game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics released by the league, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual passing attempts total will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. News regarding key quarterback injuries for either Indianapolis or Minnesota would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift the market. Late-breaking reports on team strategies or defensive matchups could further impact trader sentiment. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media trends, could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.