TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 3:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This event ties fantasy football performance to financial outcomes for a specific NFL matchup. Participants bet on how many points certain players will score in a game, with payouts scaling directly with the players' point totals. The structure creates a direct link between real-world athletic performance and monetary return.
All markets in this event function as scalar markets where Yes contract payouts are determined by multiplying the player's weekly PPR fantasy points by $0.01, rounding to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capping the payout between $0.00 and $1.00. The No contract payout is always $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to contract positions, meaning larger holdings receive correspondingly larger payouts based on the player's actual performance. If Sleeper does not assign a fantasy-point total for the specified week, the player is considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a $0.00 Yes payout and a $1.00 No payout. All markets are subject to the same calculation methodology and constraints, ensuring consistent payout structures across all participating players for the Indianapolis vs Minnesota game originally scheduled for October 25, 2026.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregate forecast of informed traders. As a result, you may find discrepancies between the two. Sportsbooks often react quickly to news, while this market may take a bit longer to adjust, as traders need time to analyze and react. However, prediction markets often prove more accurate over time, especially when considering long-term forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and order flow provide insights into trader sentiment and potential price movements. Traders are essentially betting on their assessment of the event, and the collective action sets the price.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final fantasy scalar ladder ranking as determined by standard fantasy football scoring rules. The platform will verify the results against publicly available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy. The final standings will dictate which outcome resolves positively, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to contract holders.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any significant news regarding player injuries to key players on either the Indianapolis or Minnesota teams would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in player performance or coaching strategies could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, broader news related to the NFL, such as rule changes or major upsets in other games, might indirectly affect this market. Monitoring these signals and their potential impact on player fantasy point projections is key to understanding potential market movements.