TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 3:24 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of a specific quarter in an upcoming football game between Indianapolis and Minnesota. Each market corresponds to different point spreads that must be achieved by either team during the third quarter of play. The resolution depends solely on the points scored in that quarter, regardless of the overall game result.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential between Indianapolis and Minnesota during the third quarter of their game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin: markets 1-5 require Minnesota to win by progressively larger margins (over 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, and 2.5 points respectively), while markets 6-10 require Indianapolis to win by margins of over 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, and 10.5 points. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward resolution, and all markets operate independently—meaning each resolves separately according to its specific threshold. No consideration is given to the final game outcome or points scored in other quarters.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading contracts based on their own beliefs, which can lead to odds that diverge from sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to impactful news than traditional sportsbooks, offering a potentially more dynamic view of expected outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the actual point spread achieved in the third quarter of the Indianapolis versus Minnesota game will be used to determine winning contracts. The market will settle to 100 for the contract closest to the actual result, and 0 for all others. Traders should monitor official game results to understand the final outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Indianapolis or Minnesota teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team's playing style, could also shift the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can cause price fluctuations, reflecting shifts in trader sentiment regarding the NFL 3rd quarter spread.