TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Indianapolis or Minnesota during the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Indianapolis and Minnesota during the second quarter of play in their game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team to exceed—for Minnesota, thresholds range from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, while for Indianapolis, thresholds range from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward resolving these markets. If the game is postponed or canceled without completing the second quarter, all markets will be void. The resolving entity will compare the final second-quarter scores to determine if the specified thresholds are met for each market.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to express their independent beliefs. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, the price here will move accordingly. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of information becomes available, as this market incorporates a broader range of data and perspectives than a single sportsbook might.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. Buyers believe the spread is *more* likely than the market price suggests, while sellers believe it’s *less* likely. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by the collective insights of all participants trading in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second quarter spread of the Indianapolis versus Minnesota game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point difference, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders holding contracts aligned with the actual spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts predicting a different spread will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Indianapolis or Minnesota teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing or running game, could also shift opinions. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role, as could large volume trades from informed participants on Kalshi.