TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 2:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players or defensive units score at least one touchdown during an upcoming football game between Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The outcome depends on individual player or team defensive unit performance in terms of scoring touchdowns.
All markets resolve based on whether designated players or defensive units record at least one touchdown during the full game, including overtime. Each contract features a protection clause: if a player participates in the first half but not afterward, the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the required touchdowns are scored. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protection mechanism applies only to full-game contracts with an at-least payout criterion. Passing touchdowns do not count toward the passer's total, and team defense/special-teams selections settle based on actual touchdowns without the player participation exception applying to them. All contracts are settled based on official game statistics, with Kalshi emphasizing it is not affiliated with the governing league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. Often, you’ll find that this market incorporates information and perspectives not fully captured by traditional sportsbooks, potentially leading to different probabilities assigned to each possible total for touchdowns in the Indianapolis versus Jacksonville game. It’s a fascinating comparison to observe.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different numbers of touchdowns. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of expectations. Essentially, the market price represents the cost to take one side of a bet on the total touchdowns scored, with higher prices indicating lower perceived probability.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of touchdowns scored in the Indianapolis versus Jacksonville game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, and the market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the total touchdowns scored. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available and independently verified data to ensure a fair and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Indianapolis or Jacksonville teams would likely have a significant impact, as it affects their offensive capabilities. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if heavy rain or strong winds are predicted, could also shift expectations regarding scoring. Finally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also move this market, as traders adjust their assessments of the potential for touchdowns in the game.