TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:21 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the defensive performance of both teams in an upcoming football game by counting how many times each team successfully tackles the opposing team's quarterback behind the line of scrimmage. The outcomes depend on whether specific thresholds of such plays are achieved during the contest.
All markets resolve based on the official number of sacks recorded by each team during the Indianapolis vs Jacksonville Pro Football game scheduled for November 1, 2026. Sacks recorded during 2-point conversion attempts are excluded from all calculations. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The resolution hinges solely on the total sacks achieved by each team, with specific markets requiring thresholds ranging from 2 to 6 sacks for either Indianapolis or Jacksonville.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action, whereas this market reflects what traders believe will actually happen. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing the two can offer a broader view of potential outcomes, though this market represents the aggregated forecasts of informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the likelihood of each outcome. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a 'yes' contract (Jacksonville 2+ sacks) indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, while the price of a 'no' contract (Indianapolis 2+ sacks) represents the probability of the opposing outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its forecasts.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final sack totals for both teams will be sourced from official NFL game statistics. The market will determine which outcome—Jacksonville recording 2+ sacks or Indianapolis recording 2+ sacks—accurately reflects the game's results. Traders holding a contract on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding a contract on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence this market. Injury reports for key defensive players on either team are significant, as a star pass rusher being sidelined would likely shift probabilities. Unexpected weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect passing plays and sack opportunities. Even late-breaking news regarding offensive line changes or coaching strategies could impact trader sentiment and move the market. Any developments that alter perceptions of each team's ability to generate pressure on the quarterback could lead to price fluctuations.