TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:45 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on whether a specific player will achieve various levels of rushing yardage in an upcoming football game between two teams. The outcomes depend entirely on the player's performance during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if the player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets or exceeds the specified rushing yardage threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers the full game rushing yards including overtime.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from sportsbook odds, which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows for more direct peer-to-peer betting. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can be insightful, as the market’s pricing represents a collective forecast, potentially revealing where the crowd believes sportsbooks may be mispricing the probability of certain outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of buy and sell orders at various price points, indicates the level of agreement or disagreement among traders regarding the likelihood of each outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage statistics for the Indianapolis versus Jacksonville game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual rushing yardage achieved during the game, determining which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to see the final settlement price on Kalshi once the official results are available and validated.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict inclement conditions, could also affect the expected rushing yardage totals. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in game strategy could also play a role. Finally, late-breaking news about player availability or team tactics could all contribute to volatility in this market up until the game concludes.