TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event ties fantasy football performance to financial outcomes for a specific NFL matchup. Participants bet on how many points certain players will score in a game, with payouts scaling directly with the players' performance. The structure ensures that potential earnings are capped while providing a clear inverse relationship between Yes and No positions.
The event consists of multiple parallel scalar markets, each tied to a different player's performance in the same football game. For each market, the Yes outcome pays $0.01 per fantasy point scored by the designated player, rounded to the nearest cent with half cents rounded up, and capped between $0.00 and $1.00. The No outcome pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. All markets use Sleeper's standard Points Per Reception (PPR) fantasy-point totals for the specified game week. If a player receives no fantasy-point figure from Sleeper, they are considered to have scored 0.0 points, resulting in a $0.00 Yes payout and a $1.00 No payout. Payouts are proportional to contract positions, meaning each holder's return scales with their investment size. The structure ensures that for every point scored, Yes positions gain corresponding value while No positions lose equal value, maintaining a balanced, inverse relationship across all markets.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information and incentives than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set lines to balance action and incorporate a 'vig' or commission, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. As a result, you may find discrepancies between the two. Polls and analysts’ predictions also frequently differ from both, offering another point of comparison. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently based on unique information or shifts in trader sentiment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the NFL game between Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current estimate of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information efficiently and provide a real-time assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the result of the NFL game between Indianapolis and Jacksonville will be used to determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official results published by the league, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Injury reports for key players on either team are major catalysts, as are any changes in weather forecasts that could impact the game. Unexpected news regarding team coaching strategies or player suspensions could also cause shifts in the odds. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants can quickly move the market. Monitoring these signals and staying updated on the latest news will be crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.