TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:52 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for the first quarter of an upcoming professional football game. Participants assess how decisively either team might lead at the end of the initial 15-minute segment, with various thresholds defining different levels of success.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential at the end of the first quarter of the Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville professional football game scheduled for November 1, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team's score exceeds the opponent's by more than the specified margin—for Jacksonville, margins range from 2.5 to 10.5 points, and for Indianapolis, also from 2.5 to 10.5 points. Only points scored during the first quarter count; any scoring occurring in later quarters has no impact on resolution. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold represents a separate condition that must be met for that specific market to resolve as 'Yes', with all other outcomes resulting in 'No'. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what’s readily available to traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professionals, this market allows anyone to participate and express their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to accurately forecast the probability of different outcomes, and they often converge as the event approaches.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread in the first quarter of the Indianapolis versus Jacksonville game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official NFL results will serve as the basis for verification, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Indianapolis or Jacksonville teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts for the game day could also shift expectations, as could late-breaking analysis from sports commentators or updated betting lines at sportsbooks. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team lineups could also contribute to volatility in this market.