TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 1:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Indiana or Nebraska during the second quarter of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team in that quarter alone.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second quarter of the Indiana vs Nebraska college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team wins the quarter by more than the stated point margin. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. The markets cover varying point differentials for both teams, allowing participants to speculate on different possible outcomes for the quarter's scoring dynamics.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often converging with—and sometimes diverging from—sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs. If there’s a significant difference, it could signal that prediction market traders have access to information or perspectives not fully incorporated by sportsbooks. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and discrepancies can occur due to varying factors and market dynamics.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second quarter of the game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price can fluctuate rapidly as new information becomes available or as sentiment shifts among traders, creating opportunities for those looking to profit from accurate predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second quarter of the Indiana vs Nebraska game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of the event. The contract corresponding to the actual spread will pay out $1.00, while all other contracts will expire worthless. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the outcome of this market.
Several factors could influence the Indiana vs Nebraska spread between now and game time. News regarding key player injuries on either team would likely have a significant impact, as would any major changes in team strategy or coaching decisions. Unexpected weather conditions could also shift expectations. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi or significant shifts in public sentiment, reflected in polls or expert analyses, could all contribute to price movements in this market. Monitoring these signals can help traders assess potential opportunities.