TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 1:52 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the point differential in the first half of an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on which team will dominate early in the match and by how much.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the Indiana vs Michigan college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if the winning team exceeds that threshold in the first half. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price of contracts representing that outcome will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of information becomes public, and as the event approaches, these odds often converge as more data becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring in the first half of the Indiana vs Michigan game. As more traders buy contracts for a specific spread, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of the expected spread.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-half spread of the Indiana vs Michigan game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final official result as determined by the governing body of college basketball. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of 100, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive nothing. The final spread will be the determining factor for payouts in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Indiana or Michigan teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or updated statistical models, could also shift the market. Even significant weather conditions impacting game day, or late-breaking news about team strategies, could cause traders to reassess their positions, leading to price fluctuations. The closer we get to Oct 24, 2026, the more sensitive this market will be to new information.