TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 12:32 PM EST
Kalshi
Betting interest will focus on the margin of victory should either India or Uruguay win the match. The markets will determine whether the winning team achieves a decisive advantage over their opponent within the standard match duration.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential if India or Uruguay wins the professional Intl Friendlies soccer game scheduled for October 6, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for the India markets occurs if India wins by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals. Conversely, a 'Yes' for the Uruguay markets occurs if Uruguay wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. The markets are unaffiliated with any governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides, while this market’s price is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, opportunities for arbitrage may arise, as traders could potentially profit by buying on one venue and selling on the other. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the India vs Uruguay match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay or receive for a contract that pays out if the predicted outcome happens.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the India vs Uruguay match, as reported by a recognized sports authority. The final price of the contracts will reflect the actual outcome, and those holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout based on the contract's value at resolution. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market’s settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 6, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in polls or expert analyses, might also impact the price. Furthermore, major developments in the broader sporting landscape, or even geopolitical events, could introduce uncertainty and volatility. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential price movements in this market.