TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 12:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an international friendly soccer match between India and Brazil, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. It reflects how decisively one team outperforms the other within regular time.
The event evaluates various winning margins in the India vs. Brazil professional international friendly soccer match scheduled for October 3, 2026. Resolution is based exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: India winning by more than 2.5 goals, India winning by more than 1.5 goals, Brazil winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Brazil winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any market resolving to 'Yes' occurs only if the specified team achieves the corresponding goal-differential victory within the standard match duration. The governing body’s official result, as recognized by authoritative sports databases or league announcements, will determine all resolutions. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal affiliation with the governing league or ownership of associated trademarks, logos, or brand names.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, being driven by actual traders, tends to reflect a more collective assessment of probabilities, potentially offering more favorable odds, especially for less conventional outcomes. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups – bettors in one case, and oddsmakers in the other.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different sides of the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe India will cover the spread, the price of contracts on that outcome will increase, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the India vs Brazil match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread at the conclusion of the game, as determined by official sports sources. The platform will then verify the outcome against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out, and at what value.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 3, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either India or Brazil would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the coaches, or even weather forecasts for the match location could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to the overall tournament or the competitive landscape could also shift the probabilities reflected in this market, causing price fluctuations.