TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 12:45 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will achieve a specific point differential advantage over the opposing team during the second half of a football game, including any overtime periods. The outcomes depend solely on the points scored after halftime.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in favor of either the Indianapolis Colts or the Washington Commanders during the second half (including overtime) of the game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin: markets 1-8 resolve if the Colts win by more than the stated margin (13.5 to 2.5 points), while markets 9-15 resolve if the Commanders win by more than the stated margin (2.5 to 10.5 points). Only points scored in the second half and any overtime periods count toward these thresholds. All markets share the same secondary rule, ensuring that only second-half and overtime points are considered when determining the outcome.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis from a wide range of sources. This can sometimes lead to differences compared to sportsbook odds, which are typically set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may initially set lines based on power rankings and expert opinions, while this market evolves as more people trade contracts, potentially revealing insights not immediately captured by traditional oddsmakers. It’s common to see this market and sportsbook odds converge as the event approaches, but discrepancies can still occur due to differing information and risk assessments.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second half of the Colts-Commanders game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result will be sourced from established sports data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency. The outcome will be determined by whether the actual point spread falls within the range of the purchased contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Colts or Commanders would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence traders’ perceptions of the likely outcome. Public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators could also contribute to price movements in this market.