TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:12 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates how many points will be scored by both the Indianapolis Colts and the Pittsburgh Steelers specifically in the fourth quarter of their upcoming game. Each market has a different threshold for the total points needed to settle the outcome.
All markets resolve based on the combined points scored by both teams during the fourth quarter of the game, excluding any overtime play. Each market specifies a unique threshold, ranging from over 3.5 points to over 24.5 points. If the total points scored in that quarter exceed the threshold specified for a given market, it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The evaluation strictly considers points scored within the standard fourth-quarter timeframe, with no inclusion of overtime scoring. All markets share this core mechanism but differ only in their required point totals for resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. However, as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi and sportsbook lines tend to converge, as more information becomes available and the market incorporates new data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the 4th quarter total will be over or under the specified points. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts, providing a real-time assessment of expectations for the game’s final quarter. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence in these predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the 4th quarter of the Colts-Steelers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, as reported by the NFL. The market will determine whether the total points scored in the 4th quarter exceeded or fell short of the threshold established at the time of trading. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Colts or the Steelers would likely have a significant impact, as it alters expectations about scoring potential. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect passing or kicking games, could also move the market. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team dynamics might also cause shifts in trader sentiment. Finally, even public perception and betting trends can influence the price on Kalshi.