TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either the Indianapolis Colts or the Pittsburgh Steelers specifically during the third quarter of their scheduled game on October 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that determines the outcome.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team exceeds the specified point margin outlined in each individual market—ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points—for either team. Only points scored in the third quarter count toward these determinations, meaning any scoring from other quarters is irrelevant. The markets cover various thresholds for both possible winners, allowing participants to speculate on the extent of dominance either team might achieve in that specific quarter. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the likely outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, especially early in the market, as prediction markets can incorporate information and perspectives that sportsbooks may not immediately factor in. Comparing these odds can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the Colts-Steelers 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability that the market believes the spread will fall within a certain range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the likely outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time estimate of the event's probability.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official 3rd quarter spread of the Colts-Steelers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, official spread as determined by the game's governing body. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Colts or the Steelers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, any significant shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis regarding the teams' chances could drive changes in the market price. Unexpected lineup changes or in-game performance during the first half could also be catalysts.