TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory in the second quarter of an upcoming football game between two teams. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that determines the outcome, allowing participants to assess varying levels of performance confidence for either team during that specific quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts during the second quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory, ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, with separate markets for victories by either the Steelers or the Colts. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward the resolution of these markets. If the game is postponed or canceled without completing the second quarter, all markets are void. The outcome is determined exclusively by the final score differential at the end of the second quarter, regardless of the overall game result.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the likely outcome. If many people believe the Colts will perform better than expected, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets offering more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds still represent a valuable point of comparison.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second quarter. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Buyers are expressing a belief that the spread will be *less* than the contract price, while sellers believe it will be *more*. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market constantly adjusts to new information and changing sentiment. The current price indicates what traders, as a group, believe is the most likely outcome for the Colts-Steelers 2nd quarter spread.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the Colts-Steelers game’s second quarter spread is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point differential in the second quarter will be compared to the contract prices to determine which contracts settle at $100 and which settle at $0. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Colts or the Steelers would likely have a significant impact, as would updates on weather conditions that could affect the game. Changes in public perception, driven by expert analysis or social media sentiment, can also shift the market. Finally, even in-game events during the first quarter – such as a dominant performance by one team – could lead to substantial movement in the price of contracts for this market, as traders react to the unfolding situation.