TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 3:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receiving touchdowns scored by each team in an upcoming college football game. It focuses specifically on touchdowns where a player catches the ball and runs it into the end zone, excluding those from fumble recoveries or other plays.
The event evaluates whether Maryland or Illinois achieves specific thresholds of receiving touchdowns (2+, 3+, or 4+) in their college football matchup scheduled for October 31, 2026. A receiving touchdown is defined as a player catching the ball and scoring, with certain exceptions for fumble recoveries. All touchdowns scored in overtime count toward the totals, but successful two-point conversions do not. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, it proceeds as scheduled. If the game does not start within this window, the market resolves to a fair price. The rules clarify that only touchdowns directly resulting from receptions count, and the event remains unaffiliated with the NCAA.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – this market tends to adjust quickly, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of the probability of either team reaching two receiving touchdowns. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly early in the trading period, as the market incorporates diverse perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information and shifts in sentiment regarding the Illinois vs Maryland game. The current volume indicates active trading and interest in this specific event.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, following the completion of the Illinois versus Maryland football game. The outcome will be determined by verifying the final game statistics to confirm whether either team’s players scored two or more receiving touchdowns. This verification will be conducted against credible public reporting of the game results. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key wide receivers or tight ends for either team – such as injuries, changes in playing time, or positive/negative performance reports – would likely cause price movement. Unexpected weather conditions, particularly those affecting the passing game, could also influence trading activity. Additionally, significant shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams’ offensive capabilities could drive changes in the market. Keep an eye on team news and game-day updates as the event approaches, as these are key catalysts for price fluctuations.