TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 3:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Illinois will win their college football game against Maryland by more than 2.5 points. Currently, the probability of Illinois winning by over 2.5 points on Kalshi is 99.0%. The resolution source for this market is the outcome of the Illinois vs Maryland college football game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, specifically if Illinois wins by more than 20.5 points. Keep a close eye on the game itself on October 31, 2026, as the final score will determine the market’s resolution.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Illinois vs Maryland college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by either Illinois or Maryland for the market to resolve to 'Yes'. If Illinois wins by more than the specified margin, the relevant Illinois market resolves to 'Yes'. Conversely, if Maryland wins by more than the specified margin, the corresponding Maryland market resolves to 'Yes'. If neither team meets their respective threshold, all markets resolve to 'No'. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and risk management, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If there's a significant difference, it may indicate a perceived mispricing or a strong conviction among traders that differs from the sportsbook’s assessment. It’s important to compare both to form your own informed opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Illinois-Maryland football game. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual spread will fall on that side of the line. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time forecast of the game’s outcome. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the Illinois-Maryland football game, as determined by official game statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting the actual spread will be settled at 100, while those predicting a different spread will be settled at 0. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Illinois or Maryland teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted, could also shift the spread. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any major shifts in public sentiment, reflected in betting trends or expert analysis, could contribute to price fluctuations.