TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 1:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the margin of victory in the Iceland vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League match. Outcomes depend on whether Iceland or Bulgaria achieves a win by a margin exceeding specific goal differences.
The market resolves based on the goal differential in the Iceland vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League soccer game scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four separate outcome thresholds are evaluated: Iceland wins by more than 2.5 goals, Iceland wins by more than 1.5 goals, Bulgaria wins by more than 1.5 goals, and Bulgaria wins by more than 2.5 goals. If the actual result meets any specified condition, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market aggregates insights from many individuals. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when there's considerable uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Iceland vs Bulgaria match. Examining both can provide a more well-rounded view of the probabilities involved.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Iceland vs Bulgaria match. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the expected result.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread – the difference in goals scored by Iceland and Bulgaria – as officially recorded by the governing soccer authorities. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on the actual goal difference achieved in the Iceland vs Bulgaria match, providing a clear and objective outcome for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market before Oct 3, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Iceland or Bulgaria would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the starting lineups or any controversies surrounding the teams could also contribute to shifts in this market, as traders reassess the probabilities of different outcomes for the Iceland vs Bulgaria match.