TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hurricanes vs. Lightning
Volume:
$865,684
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers an NHL matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning scheduled for March 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), multiple over/under total goals thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), and a Lightning spread (-1.5). The group tests resolution consistency across Polymarket's detailed goal-counting rules and Kalshi's binary win-condition logic.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: both possible game outcomes (Hurricanes win or Lightning win) are mapped to Yes, leaving no valid No outcome. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable under standard binary semantics and creates settlement ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market until the platform clarifies the No condition and cancellation/shootout rules. Polymarket's markets are complete and resolvable; use those as your primary reference. Request Kalshi to either (a) specify which team triggers Yes and which triggers No, or (b) confirm this is a Yes/No/Void market with explicit void conditions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Moneyline resolves to Hurricanes if CAR wins, Lightning if TB wins. Over/under markets (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) resolve based on combined goals with explicit shootout rule: add 1 goal to winner's score. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no makeup resolves 50-50. Source: NHL.com official scores. Key quote: 'In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.'
- Kalshi: Binary market states both 'If CAR Hurricanes wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If TB Lightning wins... resolves to Yes' with no explicit No outcome. No shootout adjustment, postponement, or cancellation protocol specified. Key quote: 'If CAR Hurricanes wins the Carolina at Tampa Bay professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If TB Lightning wins the Carolina at Tampa Bay professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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