TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hungary vs. Greece
Volume:
$468,566
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026 between Hungary and Greece.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution scopes. Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Greece win, Draw, Hungary win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi offers three non-mutually-exclusive markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously for the same match outcome, creating logical contradiction.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge between Polymarket and Kalshi on this event. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES. On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES for any match outcome (Greece win, Hungary win, or Tie). Betting the same outcome on both platforms exposes you to platform-specific settlement risk and potential arbitrage traps.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets where only one outcome can occur and only one market resolves YES. The Draw market uniquely resolves YES if the game is canceled with no make-up, while the Greece and Hungary win markets resolve NO in that scenario. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (Draw) vs. 'this market will resolve No' (Greece/Hungary win).
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers three non-mutually-exclusive markets that all resolve YES for any single match outcome. Each market (Greece win, Hungary win, Tie) independently resolves YES if that outcome occurs, meaning all three markets can resolve YES simultaneously for the same match. Quote: 'If Greece wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Hungary wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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