TOTAL VOLUME:
$69.5b
24H VOL:
$484,842,814
24H TRANSACTIONS:
665,968,069
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,664,094,031
640,972
Markets across
13,915
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,210
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Closed: Jun 22, 11:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This event group tracks the total number of games played in the professional tennis match between Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Corentin Moutet at the HSBC Championships in London. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for the Over/Under 22.5 games market stands at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by Official ATP Tour statistics from atptour.com, with credible reporting as backup if official data is unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion. Watch for the match scheduled on June 15, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET, as the actual game total will determine settlement across all aggregated platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official ATP Tour statistics (atptour.com); consensus of credible reporting if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusionCore resolution logic:
- Match winner (Perricard vs Moutet): Resolves to the player who advances after a ball has been played. Resolves 50-50 if match is canceled before play, delayed beyond 7 days without completion, or ends in a walkover.
- Match completion (Yes/No): Resolves Yes only if all games and sets required to determine a winner under ATP rules are played to completion through normal play. Resolves No for any forfeit, walkover, retirement, cancellation, tie, or delay beyond 7 days.
- Set winners (Set 1, Set 2): Resolve to the player winning that set if completed. Resolve 50-50 if that set is not completed for any reason or if match is canceled/delayed beyond 7 days before play begins.
- Game count markets (Match O/U 21.5, 22.5, 23.5; Set 1 O/U 8.5, 9.5, 10.5; Set 2 O/U 8.5, 9.5, 10.5): Resolve Over if total games in scope equals or exceeds threshold; resolve Under otherwise. All tiebreaks count as one game. Resolve 50-50 if match incomplete, canceled before play, or delayed beyond 7 days.
- Set handicap (Perricard -1.5 vs Moutet +1.5): Resolves to Perricard if he wins by 2+ more sets than Moutet; otherwise resolves to Moutet. Resolves 50-50 if match incomplete, canceled, or delayed beyond 7 days.
- Total sets O/U 2.5: Resolves Over if 3+ sets completed; resolves Under otherwise. Super tiebreak counts as one set. Resolves 50-50 if match incomplete, canceled, or delayed beyond 7 days.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Walkover (pre-match withdrawal): If a player withdraws before the match begins and the opponent advances automatically, Polymarket match winner resolves 50-50; Kalshi match winner resolves Yes (either player wins after a ball is played is not satisfied). Set and game markets resolve 50-50 across both platforms.
- Retirement or disqualification mid-match: If match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, the advancing player wins the match winner market (both platforms). Set and game markets resolve based on completed segments; incomplete segments resolve 50-50.
- Delay beyond 7 days: If match is delayed more than 7 days from scheduled June 15, 2026 date without a winner determined, all markets resolve 50-50 across both platforms.
- Cancellation (no play): If match is canceled and no ball is played, match winner and all dependent markets resolve 50-50 on both platforms.
- Official stats delayed: If ATP does not publish final match statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, credible reporting consensus may be used as secondary resolution source on both platforms.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately upon match conclusion (or official ATP publication within 2 hours). Markets dependent on incomplete sets/games resolve 50-50 if those segments are not reached or completed. Cancellation or 7-day delay triggers 50-50 resolution at that point.Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Corentin Moutet in the HSBC Championships, originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard' if Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard advances against Corentin Moutet. This market will resolve to 'Corentin Moutet' if Corentin Moutet advances against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
This event covers the professional tennis match between Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Corentin Moutet in the 2026 ATP London Round of 32. Resolution requires that a ball has been played, establishing that the match officially commenced. If the match does not occur before play begins—due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation—the market resolves to a fair price per standard rules. Should the match be postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes following the rescheduled match completion, provided the rescheduling occurs within two weeks. The winner of the match, once determined after play has commenced, determines the final resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets reflect live consensus from thousands of independent traders with real money at stake. This market typically shows tighter spreads and faster price adjustments to breaking news than conventional betting lines. However, sportsbook odds often incorporate sharper professional handicapping, whereas prediction markets can be influenced by retail trader sentiment. Comparing both sources provides a fuller picture of true probability versus bookmaker-adjusted pricing.
Kalshi and Polymarket may price this market differently for several reasons. Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures that influence marginal pricing. Kalshi uses an automated market maker model, while Polymarket operates order-book matching, leading to different price discovery mechanics. Regulatory constraints, settlement timing, and contract specifications can also vary between venues. These gaps typically narrow as informed traders arbitrage across platforms, but temporary divergences create opportunities for sophisticated traders monitoring both simultaneously.
This market resolves around , once the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official match result as reported by the tournament organizers and major sports news outlets. Traders holding positions on the winning side receive their payout proportionally, while losing positions expire worthless. Until that date, prices will fluctuate based on player form, injury reports, head-to-head records, and other factors that influence perceived match probability.
Several catalysts could shift prices significantly before . Injury announcements or withdrawal news for either player would trigger sharp repricing. Recent tournament performance, practice reports, and commentary from analysts often move sentiment. Head-to-head history and surface preference (hard court dynamics at the HSBC Championships) influence trader positioning. Weather forecasts and court conditions closer to match day can also matter. Major upsets in earlier rounds or shifts in player ranking and confidence levels typically generate volume spikes. Monitoring sports news and player social media provides early signals that sophisticated traders use to adjust positions.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.