TOTAL VOLUME:
$68.1b
24H VOL:
$379,335,514
24H TRANSACTIONS:
654,233,031
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,517,813,901
635,494
Markets across
13,995
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,192
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
49%
VS.
Kalshi:
51%
Time left: 03d:14h:06m
Will Eric Lee make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open?
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Trade on Polymarket
At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% High Projected APY: 1,068% Low liquidity 3 days to resolution
Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 48¢ buys you 208 shares | Odds: 48% Total Payout: $208 | Net Profit: $108 Multiplier: 2.08x | ROI: 108% High Projected APY: 1,068%Intro
This market tracks whether professional golfer Eric Lee will advance past the cut line at the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket stands at 98.0% probability that Lee makes the cut. Resolution will be determined by the official U.S. Open leaderboard published by the USGA at usopen.com, with the cut line finalized on June 21, 2026, when the tournament concludes its second round.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official U.S. Open leaderboard published by the USGA at usopen.comCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves Yes if and only if the named player's score places them at or above the cut line after 36 holes of the 2026 U.S. Open.
- Market resolves No if the player misses the cut, withdraws before or during the tournament, is disqualified, or becomes ineligible per USGA rules.
- If the tournament is cancelled or postponed after July 5, 2026, all markets resolve No.
- If it cannot be determined whether a player made the cut within the resolution window, the market resolves No.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Withdrawal or Disqualification: If a player withdraws before the cut is determined or is disqualified, the market resolves No.
- Tournament Cancellation or Postponement: If the 2026 U.S. Open is cancelled or postponed after July 5, 2026, all cut markets resolve No.
- Tie at Cut Line: If a player ties at the cut line, they advance (make the cut) per standard USGA tournament rules and the market resolves Yes.
- Incomplete Information: If the cut status cannot be determined within the resolution window, the market resolves No.
Timing:
Resolution occurs after the completion of 36 holes (two rounds) of the 2026 U.S. Open, when the official cut line is published by the USGA. Markets must resolve by July 5, 2026, or they default to No.Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player makes the cut for the main tournament at the 2026 US Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to make the cut for the main tournament at the 2026 US Open per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, or postponed after July 5, 2026, or it cannot be determined whether the listed player has made the cut within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the US Open website (https://www.usopen.com/leaderboard).
Kalshi
If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to fair market value. If a golfer tees off but subsequently withdraws or is disqualified, the market resolves to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate on crowd-sourced pricing, where traders buy and sell shares based on their beliefs about outcomes. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which set fixed odds and manage risk through margins, these platforms let supply and demand determine prices in real time. Prediction market odds often reflect sharper, less biased estimates because traders have direct financial incentive to price accurately. However, sportsbook odds may incorporate additional factors like injury reports or late-breaking news faster, depending on market depth and liquidity in this market.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites, which can create temporary price gaps on the same outcome. Kalshi and Polymarket also operate under distinct regulatory frameworks and fee structures, affecting how aggressively traders arbitrage between them. Differences in user interface, available contract types, and promotional incentives further influence where volume concentrates. These spreads typically narrow when informed traders spot mispricings, but can persist if transaction costs or platform friction outweigh the profit opportunity.
This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, once the 2026 U.S. Open concludes and final results are verified. The outcome is determined by whether each golfer advances past the cut, confirmed against credible public reporting from the tournament. Traders holding positions on a player will see their contracts settle based on the official leaderboard and cut line announced by the U.S. Golf Association. Resolution happens shortly after the cut is officially posted, allowing positions to close and winnings to be distributed.
Player form and recent tournament results are primary drivers—strong finishes on the PGA Tour or European Tour typically boost cut-making odds, while missed cuts or injuries lower them. Course conditions, weather forecasts, and field strength can shift expectations as the event approaches. Major announcements like player withdrawals, equipment changes, or coaching adjustments also move prices. Media coverage and expert commentary often trigger volume spikes, and as Jun 21, 2026 nears, real-time leaderboard updates during the tournament itself will create sharp repricing across both platforms.
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