TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks rushing performance in an upcoming football game, assigning payouts based on how many yards specific players gain. Contracts reward higher payouts as players accumulate more rushing yards, with detailed tiers for each level of achievement.
Contracts in this market resolve based on the official rushing yards accumulated by designated players in the Houston vs Tennessee Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each Yes contract pays a scaled payout determined by the player's rushing yards, following a cubic function that increases with yardage. Payouts are capped at $1.00 and calculated in increments of 10 yards, with specific tiers ranging from $0.0000 for 0–9 yards up to $1.0000 for 200 or more yards. The No contract payout is the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout. Negative rushing yard totals result in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. All calculations use the official game statistics, and the market resolves to Yes once the yardage thresholds are met according to the defined schedule.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to express their own independent assessments. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the prediction market price can adjust more rapidly than traditional odds. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially closer to the event, as the market incorporates a wider range of data and perspectives than a sportsbook might.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, ranges of total rushing yards. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the fair value. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the Houston vs Tennessee game, driven entirely by participant activity.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official total rushing yards for both the Houston and Tennessee teams are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final market price will reflect the actual rushing yardage achieved during the game. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. It’s important to monitor news and updates leading up to the game, as any changes could impact the final result and the market’s settlement.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would changes in weather conditions – rain or snow could favor a more run-heavy offensive strategy. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding play-calling could also shift expectations. Furthermore, any news regarding defensive matchups or changes in team personnel could impact the perceived likelihood of different rushing yardage totals. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact is crucial for informed trading in this market.