TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 5:30 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the number of receptions achieved by specific Houston and Tennessee players in an upcoming NFL game. Participants bet on whether each player will reach certain reception thresholds, with payouts scaling based on actual performance. The structure allows for nuanced wagering on individual player contributions within the game.
This set of markets functions as a series of scalar outcome bets tied to the Houston vs Tennessee NFL game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific player—Wan'Dale Robinson, Nico Collins, David Montgomery, and Dalton Schultz—and determines whether the number of receptions that player records during the game triggers a Yes or No payout. For every Yes contract, the payout is calculated at $0.05 per reception, up to a maximum of $1.00, which corresponds to a cap of 20 receptions. The No contract payout is structured as $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring that the total payout for each contract across both outcomes equals $1.00. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning that if a player records, for example, eight receptions, the Yes payout would be $0.40 and the No payout $0.60; if the player records zero receptions, the Yes payout is $0.00 and the No payout is $1.00. All markets operate independently, and each resolves based solely on the reception count of its designated player, with no cross-market dependencies. The markets are explicitly unaffiliated with the NFL, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from sportsbook odds, which are often set by analysts. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and perceived biases, while this market aggregates the beliefs of numerous individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts on Kalshi and at a sportsbook. However, it’s important to note that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and neither is guaranteed to be more accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different reception totals. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically. The goal is to find contracts that are mispriced relative to your own assessment of the likelihood of various reception totals, allowing you to potentially profit from the difference.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for relevant players will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the governing body of the game, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their purchased contracts align with the actual outcome of the Houston vs Tennessee game.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Houston or Tennessee teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that could affect passing games, could also impact trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about player matchups or coaching strategies could shift market sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi themselves can create momentum and drive price fluctuations as traders react to perceived information or trends.