TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming professional football game. It focuses on whether predetermined thresholds of passing attempts are met by the named players during the match. The outcome depends purely on in-game performance metrics.
All markets in this event resolve based on the total number of passing attempts recorded by the specified quarterback—either Cam Ward or C.J. Stroud—during the Houston vs Tennessee Pro Football game scheduled for October 11, 2026. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' the designated player must meet or exceed the stated threshold of passing attempts (27+, 32+, or 37+). If the quarterback is active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once the player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets associated with this event, ensuring consistency in evaluation regardless of the specific threshold being observed.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public betting bias or house advantage. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market represents what traders believe will actually happen. Over time, the odds in this market may converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available, but discrepancies can persist, particularly if new information emerges that isn't fully reflected in traditional betting markets. It’s a useful comparison to see where the crowd differs from professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total passing attempts. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The more traders believe a particular passing attempt total is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will be. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final passing attempts total from the Houston versus Tennessee game, as officially recorded by sports data providers, will determine the outcome. The market will settle to 100 for the contract corresponding to the actual total passing attempts. It’s important to note that the official game statistics are the sole determinant of resolution, and any disputes will be resolved based on those figures.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact, as this directly affects the expected passing volume. Weather forecasts also play a role – inclement weather often leads to more running plays and fewer passing attempts. Changes in coaching strategy or reports on offensive game plans could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis regarding the matchup could cause fluctuations in this market leading up to Oct 11, 2026.