TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 3:03 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team or category will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. It includes possibilities for either of the competing teams' defensive units scoring first, as well as a scenario where no touchdown is scored at all during the game.
The event determines whether the first touchdown in the Houston vs Tennessee professional football game scheduled for October 11, 2026, is scored by the Tennessee Titans defense, the Houston Texans defense, or if no touchdown is scored during the game. Each market corresponds to one of these three possible outcomes. If a team's defensive unit is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a defensive unit takes a snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined based on whether that unit scores the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored in the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. These rules ensure that market resolutions are based on actual game events, with specific provisions for scenarios where teams may not participate or the game remains scoreless.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time adjustments based on traders’ beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to accurately predict the probability of an event, and both can be valuable tools for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among participants regarding each player’s likelihood of scoring first. The current price effectively represents a real-time probability assessment.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which player officially scores the first touchdown in the Houston versus Tennessee game, as determined by official game statistics. The official game log will serve as the definitive record for determining the winning contract. Any potential disputes will be evaluated based on these official records and widely accepted football rules.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could shift the probabilities. Unexpected announcements about player availability, such as a key receiver being ruled out, would likely cause a substantial price movement. Additionally, late-breaking reports on player matchups or offensive game plans could influence trader behavior. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and expert analysis, can also contribute to shifts in this market.