TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Houston wins by more than 2.5 goals
- Kalshi
Houston wins by more than 2.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 7, 2026
Time left: 05d:05h:23m
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These markets assess the performance gap between Houston and Saint Louis in their scheduled MLS soccer match on November 7, 2026. They focus on the margin of victory for either team, determining whether a win is achieved by a specific number of goals or more. Outcomes are based solely on regular-time scoring, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential thresholds for determining a winner in the Houston vs Saint Louis MLS match scheduled for November 7, 2026. All resolutions occur after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty kicks. Four distinct outcome thresholds exist: Houston winning by more than 2.5 goals, Houston winning by more than 1.5 goals, Saint Louis winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Saint Louis winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a separate market that resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team achieves the corresponding goal-differential victory. The structure allows participants to bet on varying levels of dominance in the match outcome. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the MLS or its governing bodies, and all league-related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it may indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Houston vs Saint Louis game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Houston vs Saint Louis game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the sport. The final score difference will be compared to the contract spreads offered on Kalshi to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and their resulting profits or losses shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game takes place. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Houston or Saint Louis teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact playing conditions, could also affect the spread. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions, or even significant shifts in public sentiment, could all contribute to fluctuations in the market price. Monitoring these signals is key to understanding potential shifts in this market.