TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 6:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Houston will win their college football game against Kansas State by more than 2.5 points. Currently, the probability of Houston winning by over 2.5 points on Kalshi is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the Houston vs Kansas St. college football game, with resolution determined if Kansas St. wins by more than 16.5 points. Participants should closely watch the game itself, as the market resolves the day after the originally scheduled game date of Oct 10, 2026, on Oct 11, 2026.
All markets resolve based on the official final score of the Houston vs Kansas State college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. If Kansas State wins by a margin exceeding the specified threshold (e.g., over 20.5 points), the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Similarly, if Houston wins by more than the stated margin (e.g., over 17.5 points), the relevant market resolves to Yes. For any game postponement, if play commences within 48 hours of the original start time, markets remain open and resolve per the final result. If the game does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of schedule changes.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their risk, incorporating a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders predicting the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both the prediction market and a sportsbook. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe Houston will cover a particular spread, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Houston vs Kansas St. game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sports authority. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of $1 per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive $0. The exact timing of the resolution may vary slightly depending on the availability of official results.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game takes place. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Houston or Kansas St. teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as significant betting activity in sportsbooks, could all contribute to movement in this market. Public perception and analysis from sports commentators can also play a role.