TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 1:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players from both teams achieve a rushing play longer than a set threshold in an upcoming football game. Each player's performance is evaluated independently, focusing on their ability to gain significant yardage in a single rush during the match.
The event evaluates multiple individual player markets to determine if any listed player records a rushing play exceeding their specified yardage threshold in the Houston vs. Jacksonville Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026. For each player market, if the athlete records a longest rush exceeding the set threshold, that specific market resolves to Yes. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by whether their longest rush meets or exceeds the specified yardage threshold. All markets operate independently, and the resolution for each player is based exclusively on their individual performance in the game.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may initially incorporate biases or react quickly to breaking news, while this market aggregates the views of many traders. As more information becomes available, the prices in this market tend to converge towards what many believe is the true probability of each player having the longest rush. However, discrepancies can still exist due to differing market participants and risk appetites.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which player will have the longest rush. As more people buy contracts for a particular player, the price of that contract increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of that player having the longest rush, scaled to a value between 0 and 100. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest single rushing attempt, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the outcome. The official NFL game statistics will be used to verify the longest rush, and the market will settle based on this verified data. Any ties will be resolved according to the platform's rules, which are available on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key running backs are a major catalyst, as the absence of a star player would shift probabilities. News regarding weather conditions, particularly if inclement weather is expected, could also influence the market, as it impacts the running game. Unexpected changes in team strategy or play-calling tendencies, or even late-breaking news about a player’s health or role in the game, could all cause shifts in trading activity and price movement in this market.