TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:02 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance of quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud in a specific NFL matchup, focusing on how many passing touchdowns each player throws during the game. Bettors can speculate on whether each quarterback will reach various threshold levels of scoring efficiency in this contest.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing touchdowns recorded by the specified quarterback (Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Stroud) in the Houston vs Jacksonville NFL game scheduled for October 18, 2026. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the named player achieves the exact threshold stated in the market title (e.g., 1+, 2+, etc.) during the game. If a quarterback is active for the team but does not take any snaps due to coaching decisions or injury, the market settles at its fair pre-game price. However, once a player takes at least one snap - regardless of whether the play is later nullified by penalty - the market outcome is determined solely by the actual number of passing touchdowns recorded during that game time period. All markets operate independently, meaning each threshold level (1+, 2+, 3+, 4+) for each quarterback has its own distinct resolution criteria.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from traders. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may adjust their lines to manage risk, the prices in this market are driven purely by supply and demand among participants predicting the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the number of passing touchdowns. The price of each contract fluctuates based on the forces of supply and demand. When more people believe an outcome is likely, the price of contracts representing that outcome increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price discovery that reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual number of passing touchdowns scored during the Houston versus Jacksonville game.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to favor passing or running plays, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or player matchups could also move the market. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the likely passing touchdown total has the potential to influence trading activity.