TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 12:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with receivers. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds predetermined completion thresholds during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total passing completions recorded by the named quarterback in the Houston vs Jacksonville Professional Football game originally scheduled for October 18, 2026. If the quarterback is active for the game but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of passing completions recorded during the game. Each market has a specific numerical threshold (15+, 20+, 25+ for Trevor Lawrence; 18+, 23+, 28+ for C.J. Stroud), and the market settles to 'Yes' only if the player's completions meet or exceed their respective threshold. These rules ensure fair resolution accounting for player availability and in-game participation, while maintaining clarity around completion counts as the sole determinant of outcomes.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives beyond those considered by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market allows a broader range of participants to weigh in, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments, information access, or simply variations in opinion. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the total passing completions. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among participants regarding the likely total passing completions.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved during the game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will serve as the source of truth for settlement. Traders will be able to see the confirmed result and the corresponding payouts based on their positions in this market following the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. News regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers would likely have a significant impact, as would changes in weather forecasts that might affect passing strategies. Unexpected announcements about coaching decisions or shifts in team play-calling tendencies could also move the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking information about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in traders’ expectations and, consequently, the prices in this market.