TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:09 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which player or team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. Participants can bet on individual players from either team, defensive units, or the possibility of no touchdown being scored at all.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player, defensive unit, or 'No Touchdown' outcome scores the first touchdown of the game. If a listed player or unit is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a player or unit takes at least one snap, resolution depends solely on whether they score the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored by any participant in these markets, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves as Yes, and all other player and unit markets resolve as No. Touchdowns resulting from fake punts or offensive field goals do not count toward special teams touchdowns for resolution purposes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven purely by individuals willing to buy or sell based on their beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early on, as prediction markets tend to incorporate information and adjust rapidly to news and analysis. Examining these differences can offer insights into public perception versus professional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, and fluctuates based on supply and demand. Higher demand for a particular player’s contract will drive up the price, indicating a greater perceived chance of them scoring first. Conversely, increased selling pressure will lower the price. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time assessment of probabilities as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which player officially scores the first touchdown in the game, as recorded by official game statistics. The official game log will serve as the source of truth for determining the winning outcome. Traders will have until the official result is available to adjust their positions and ensure accurate market reflection.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players or potential touchdown scorers, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, especially if they favor a run-heavy or pass-heavy offense, could also influence the market. Finally, any late-breaking news about team strategies or play-calling tendencies could lead to adjustments in trader sentiment and, consequently, the prices within this market.