TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 2:51 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the second quarter in an upcoming football game between two teams. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will have a decisive lead by the end of that quarter. The resolution depends solely on the scoring during that specific period of play.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans exclusively during the second quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin—ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points—and applies to either team depending on the outcome. A 'Yes' result occurs only if the specified team's lead exceeds the designated margin by the end of the second quarter. All markets exclusively consider points scored during that quarter, disregarding any scoring from other quarters. The governing league’s official scoring and game records will determine resolution, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league or ownership of related trademarks.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects the aggregated predictions of informed traders. Often, prediction markets are seen as a more accurate forecasting tool, especially when compared to early betting lines or public polls. However, sportsbook odds can still be valuable for understanding the broader market sentiment and identifying potential discrepancies that traders might exploit in this market. It’s common to see differences emerge as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions based on collective intelligence. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 2nd quarter spread of the Texans-Titans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the NFL and widely available through sports news outlets. The contract price at resolution will determine payouts to traders who correctly predicted the spread. It’s important to monitor the game’s progress and official results as the resolution date approaches to understand how this market will settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Texans or Titans would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also impact predictions. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could shift trader sentiment. Finally, even late-breaking news about team morale or internal conflicts could influence how traders assess the likely 2nd quarter spread in this market.