TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:57 PM EST
Kalshi
In an upcoming NFL matchup, the Houston Texans face the Tennessee Titans. The first quarter will determine which team scores more points in that initial segment of the game. A tie in points during this period results in a specific resolution for all related outcomes.
If Tennessee wins the 1st Quarter of the HOU Texans vs TEN Titans Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Houston wins the 1st Quarter of the HOU Texans vs TEN Titans Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If neither team wins the 1st Quarter of the HOU Texans vs TEN Titans Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe one team is more likely to win the first quarter than sportsbooks suggest, the odds on Kalshi will shift accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before a lot of money has been traded on this market, as prediction markets often become more accurate closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that outcome’s likelihood. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to find an equilibrium. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market operates on a 0-100 scale, where a price of 50 represents a 50% probability. Traders can take either the 'yes' or 'no' side, betting on whether a specific team will win the first quarter. The more traders buy into a particular outcome, the higher its price will climb.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official result of which team won the first quarter of the Texans-Titans game will determine the winning contract. The platform will verify the result against official sources to ensure accuracy. Traders holding contracts on the winning team will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing team will forfeit their stake. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries for either the Texans or Titans would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also shift the odds. Public perception, fueled by expert analysis or social media sentiment, can also impact trading behavior. Finally, large-volume trades from individual participants could temporarily swing the market in one direction or another, creating opportunities for astute traders.