TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter in an upcoming football game between two teams. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will lead by a specific margin at the end of the first quarter.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans exclusively during the first quarter of their game scheduled for October 11, 2026. Each market specifies a different point spread threshold, ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, for either team to win by. If the winning team exceeds the specified spread during the first quarter, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Only points scored in the first quarter count toward these outcomes, and the markets are independent of the overall game result or any subsequent quarters. The markets cover both teams' potential victories by varying margins, allowing for a detailed assessment of expected dominance in the opening quarter.
Typically, prediction market odds tend to align with those found at sportsbooks, but subtle differences can emerge. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. If a significant discrepancy appears, it may indicate that prediction market participants have information or a perspective that differs from sportsbook oddsmakers. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and both can be influenced by public perception and late-breaking news. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the potential game flow.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction format, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 1st quarter spread between the Texans and Titans. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand – if more people believe the Texans will cover, the 'yes' contract price will rise, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing means the market odds are constantly adjusting to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. Traders are actively expressing their predictions, and the resulting price reflects the aggregated forecast of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official 1st quarter spread of the Texans versus Titans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual spread achieved during the first quarter of the game, as determined by official game statistics. The market will settle to 100 if the spread favors the 'yes' side, and 0 if it favors the 'no' side, with values in between reflecting the actual spread. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final result.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Texans or Titans, particularly quarterbacks or important defensive players, would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing game, could also move the market. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also influence trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and drive price fluctuations, reflecting a sudden change in collective belief.