TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 4:10 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track various point-spread outcomes for an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on the margin of victory. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which either team might win. The resolution depends solely on the official game result, with specific provisions for postponements.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the Holy Cross vs Harvard college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. For markets predicting a Harvard victory, resolution occurs if Harvard’s winning margin exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from 2.5 to 38.5 points). Conversely, markets predicting a Holy Cross victory resolve if Holy Cross wins by more than 1.5, 5.5, or 9.5 points. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines to balance action and ensure profit, often incorporating a margin for themselves. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own analysis and information. While sportsbooks may initially influence the market, differences often emerge as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities, though discrepancies can and do occur.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Holy Cross vs Harvard game. The price of a contract indicates the probability that the actual spread will fall on the corresponding side. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more traders participate, the price tends to converge towards a collective assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Holy Cross vs Harvard game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout of 100, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their investment. The market’s outcome is determined by the actual result of the game, not by any subjective judgment.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Holy Cross or Harvard teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements related to the game, such as a change in venue or starting lineup, could also lead to shifts in the market price. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls or media coverage, may also play a role, though the market primarily reflects informed trading.