TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Europa League soccer match between Hoffenheim and Lyon, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Different thresholds for goal differentials define various possible resolutions.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the Hoffenheim vs Lyon professional Europa League soccer match scheduled for October 22, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds are evaluated after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. If Hoffenheim wins by more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Hoffenheim wins by more than 1.5 goals, its corresponding market resolves positively. For Lyon, winning by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals each have their own Yes resolutions. All markets share the same secondary disclaimer stating that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set lines to attract balanced action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets are generally considered more accurate forecasters of event outcomes, especially when significant information is available. However, sportsbook odds can still provide a useful benchmark for comparison, and differences may highlight areas where the crowd disagrees with professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the spread in the Hoffenheim vs Lyon match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price differences.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Hoffenheim vs Lyon match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by official match statistics, and this market will settle based on whether Hoffenheim wins by more than 2.5 goals. The platform will then distribute payouts to contract holders according to the final outcome, reflecting the probabilities established during trading.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market leading up to Oct 23, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Hoffenheim or Lyon would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift traders’ expectations. Unexpected announcements about key personnel or significant shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and analysis, could all contribute to price movement in this market.