TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 2:00 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varaždin, scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "HNK Hajduk Split" if HNK Hajduk Split are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "NK Varaždin" if NK Varaždin are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varaždin, scheduled for October 18, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "HNK Hajduk Split" if HNK Hajduk Split are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "NK Varaždin" if NK Varaždin are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook has mispriced a team’s chances, the prediction market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see prediction market probabilities move closer to the actual outcome as more information becomes available and more traders participate, potentially offering a more accurate assessment than traditional odds.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and place bets, the price adjusts to reflect the collective sentiment. Higher demand for shares in a particular team will drive up its price, indicating a greater perceived chance of them scoring first. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and evolving opinions.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which team scores the first goal in the Hajduk Split vs. NK Varaždin match. The official match records will be used to determine the winning outcome. Any potential disputes will be evaluated based on widely accepted football rules and official game statistics. Traders should monitor official sources for confirmation of the final result and settlement of this market.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Late-breaking news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Hajduk Split or Varaždin would likely cause significant shifts in probabilities. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also impact the market. Additionally, any pre-match analysis from reputable sports analysts highlighting a tactical advantage for one side could sway traders’ opinions. Unexpected team line-ups announced shortly before kickoff could also lead to price adjustments as traders react to the new information.