TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 3:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different winning margins in the Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga Japan J1 League match scheduled for October 17, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered: Hiroshima winning by more than 2.5 goals, Hiroshima winning by more than 1.5 goals, Kyoto Sanga winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Kyoto Sanga winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty kicks. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the specific condition met by the actual result; if none of these conditions are satisfied, all markets resolve to 'No.' Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league or teams involved, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small group of experts, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the probabilities implied by both can be a useful exercise for anyone interested in the Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga match, but remember that each represents a distinct form of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a particular outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the market constantly adjusts to incorporate new information and changing expectations about the Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga match. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially recorded spread as determined by the governing body of the league. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts on the incorrect spread will receive nothing. The market’s outcome is determined by the actual result of the game, not by any subjective judgment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Hiroshima or Kyoto Sanga teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, weather forecasts for the match day, and even public sentiment expressed on social media could all contribute to price movements. Unexpected tactical decisions announced by the coaches or late-breaking news about player availability are also potential catalysts that could shift the market’s probabilities concerning the Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga match.